At $90, the Game Brings Nintendo of America Record Day 1 Revenue

Nintendo’s latest motion-control hit has debuted to one day sales of
more than 650,000 units in the Americas. At a penny shy of $90 in the
USA, the game debuted to a day sales total of roughly $60 million.
Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Nintendo’s top week one debut ever in the
Americas, by comparison debuted at 950,000 units in the Americas
bringing its total to $47.5 million on day one. Mario Kart Wii had
slightly greater day one sales relative to Wii Fit – 750,000 - but
ultimately brought in less money than Wii Fit did in its first day.
While first week sales for Wii Fit are not yet available, the two other
debuts mentioned above saw a 5:3 week one sales to day sales ratio.

Since Wii Fit is more expensive than Mario Kart or
Super Smash Brothers Brawl, but appeals to a wider audience than those
titles do, it is difficult to estimate whether it will follow a similar
pattern. At a Mario Kart/Smash Brothers week one to day one ratio, the
game could end up selling as much as ~1.2 million units in the Americas
by May 24
th if the current shortages are alleviated by the
end of the week. At $90, the game likely will top out at $75 million to
$100 million in revenue depending on how severe shortages are during
week one.
While at the opposite end of the gaming spectrum, a ~$90 million week one debut in the Americas would put
Wii Fit on a trajectory to eventually pass Halo 3 on Xbox 360, and
Grand Theft Auto IV across Xbox 360 and PS3once Wii Fit has been released in the Americas for more than a few
weeks. Halo 3 and GTAIV both had higher day one sales, week one sales
and revenue totals than Wii Fit will have week one, but the sales and
price of Wii Fit over the long term should allow it to eventually crush
the other two in terms of revenue and unit sales because of enormous
legs. The attributes common to both types of game are enormous hype
among gamers, higher than usual cost, varying demographic appeal, and
tons of
mainstream press coverage.
Since Wii Fit has been pitched as a product for women (see the image
from the NY Post below) in addition to gamers and covered both
positively and negatively by the so-called gaming press, demand should
remain enormous for weeks, in contrast to the front loaded nature for
Halo 3 and GTAIV. While Halo 3 and GTAIV will triple their week one
sales, Wii Fit could hit 10-20x its week one sales. Wii Fit will likely
have a user base advantage as well since
Nintendo projects to have shipped 49.45 million Wiis by March 31, 2009while PS3 and Xbox 360 combined will likely be at a similar or smaller
number by the same point. At some point 360 and PS3 combined will
likely be outsold by Wii.
Comparing Wii Fit and Wii Play in Japan reveals Wii Fit reached 2.0 million 33 weeks faster than Wii Play did. I
n Others, Wii Fit reached 1.0 million in three weeks while Wii Play reached 1.0 million in 33 weeks.
Wii Play is at 5.8 million+ in the Americasright now, so if Wii Fit tracks similarly fast compared to Wii Play in
the Americas, there is little reason to think the title will end up
under 10 million units eventually, and there is potential for it to be
much higher. Consider that Wii Fit is going to hit
10x its week one sales in Japan within a year, and you begin to understand just how well the game could sell in the Americas